Quantification of impacts between 1.5 and 4 °C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries

Abstract We project climate change induced changes in fluvial flood risks for six global warming levels between 1.5 and 4 °C by 2100, focusing on the major river basins of countries. Daily time series precipitation, temperature monthly potential evapotranspiration were generated combining observations, daily reanalysis data projected five CMIP5 GCMs also selected ISI-MIP fast track project. These then used to drive HBV hydrological model CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic simulate discharge inundation. Our results indicate that return periods 1 100-year floods late twentieth century (Q100-20C) are likely decrease with warming. At warming, 47%, 66%, 27%, 65%, 62% 92% basin areas Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana India respectively experience a period Q100-20C, increasing 54%, 81%, 28%, 82%, 86% 96% The leads increased number people exposed risks, particularly where exposure countries increases significantly, ranging from doubling (China) more than 50-fold (Egypt). Limiting would avoid much these resulting 12 1266% 6